Bruised, not broken: how Dubai property came through the conflict
October 2026 · Kevin Walsh, Senior Investment Advisor
When the regional conflict broke out in late February, friends at home in Ireland asked me the same question within a day of each other: is Dubai still safe to buy in? Eight months on, there is enough data to answer it properly, rather than with a feeling.
What happened in March
The shock was real. Dubai had just recorded the strongest month in its history, around AED 72 billion of transactions in January. Then in March, total transaction value fell to roughly AED 53 billion, down about 29% on February, according to Dubai Land Department figures. Buyers paused, viewings were cancelled and signings were pushed back.
What did not happen matters just as much. Off-plan sales from developers kept growing year on year through the slowdown. That tells you buyers with a three-to-five-year horizon kept buying, even while people who needed certainty tomorrow stepped back.
The recovery
By April, sales were rising again. May and June were stronger still, with sales volumes up by around a third month on month in June as the diplomatic picture improved. From January to September, Dubai recorded about AED 574 billion of real estate transactions across more than 165,000 deals: the second-highest total in the market’s history.
The honest part
It is not 2025 again, and I would not tell you it is. September’s sales count was roughly 44% below the same month last year, and nearly all of that fall was in off-plan. Average prices per square foot held within about 2–3% of a year ago, but rents have softened and currently favour tenants. Estimates of how far prices dipped in the spring range from around 4% to 10%, depending on who measured and how.
The market paused. It did not break. But the easy years, when almost anything bought off-plan went up, are behind us.
What it means if you are buying now
- You have more negotiating room than a year ago. Developers are competing harder on price and payment plans.
- Mortgage values are up sharply on last year. More buyers are end users with finance, which makes for a steadier market than one driven by quick flips.
- Supply is rising in some communities. Location and developer choice matter more now, not less.
- Yield maths should use today’s rents, not last year’s.
My view: this is a market for being selective, not for sitting out. If you want to talk through a specific project or community, message me and I will give you my honest read.
Figures from Dubai Land Department data as reported by Emirates 24|7 (1 October 2026), Property Finder, Stake (H1 2026 report) and Totality Estates (September 2026 report). Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
All articles
